Articles

Senior Portfolio Manager Ted Cohan focuses on a recap of key performance trends across U.S., international, and bond markets, along with a brief look at economic indicators like GDP and Fed policy.

Soft and hard economic data are back in the news as trade policy changes. Soft data, such as surveys, measures sentiment, expectations, intentions, and how respondents feel about the economy. In contrast, hard data measures actual results and activity, such as production, spending, and job growth. While they typically move together, there are periods of heightened uncertainty where they can diverge, such as today. This month’s chart focuses on the difference between soft and hard economic data and discusses how to interpret their recent divergence.

At Baker Boyer, we understand that when businesses grow, whether by expanding operations or opening their doors for the first time—the entire community benefits.

Stocks declined in early April after the White House unveiled sweeping tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling over -10% in the first week. However, after the administration paused tariffs and trade tensions eased, the S&P 500 rebounded to finish the month with a loss of less than -1%. Interest rates were volatile in April as the market navigated tariff headlines and economic uncertainty but ultimately ended the month unchanged, with Treasury and corporate bonds flat. Outside the stock and bond markets, gold surged to a record high amid increased market volatility. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar weakened due to concerns about the direction of U.S. policymaking. As discussed below, Washington policy has had a significant impact on global markets this year.

We know this has been a challenging stretch in the markets, and many of you are wondering: “How much further could this go?” It’s a fair question—and one we’re keeping a close eye on. Some of the recent market volatility is tied to concerns over new tariffs that may take effect soon. If they do, analysts estimate they could reduce corporate earnings, which might justify further market declines. That said, markets don’t move in straight lines—and policy decisions can change quickly. Even a hint of delay or negotiation around the proposed tariffs could send stocks bouncing back sharply, as we briefly saw earlier this week.

Markets have moved quickly in recent days, and for many investors, that brings uncertainty. In this video, our Chief Investment Officer, John Cunnison, CFA, shares perspective on the current environment—highlighting how time-tested investment principles can help cut through the noise and guide smart decisions during volatile periods.

John Cunnison and Tyson Romanick provide an analysis of the recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and their potential impact on both the U.S. and global economies.

As a business owner, understanding your financial statements is crucial to assessing the financial health of your company. Lenders, investors, and financial professionals rely on key financial ratios to evaluate a business’s ability to meet its obligations. By learning to interpret these metrics, you can proactively manage cash flow, avoid liquidity challenges, and position your business for growth.

In this month’s Market Update, Senior Portfolio Manager Ted Cohan dives into the latest market trends and their impact on investors. He discusses the ongoing market volatility, the role of tariffs in shaping economic conditions, and planned portfolio adjustments being made. Additionally, our Portfolio Managers share insights on how the market is navigating economic and policy uncertainty so far this year.

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